![]() ![]() However, it’s all too easy to draw incorrect conclusions from aggregate data. What Alberto Cairo calculated is called the Ecological Correlation-because the unit of analysis is not an individual person but a group of people, the residents of a state. Say we’ve measured two variables-X and Y-related to 40 randomly selected individuals, 10 from each of 4 different states as shown in the table below. ![]() Robinson in 1950 when he published his “Ecological Correlations and the Behaviors of Individuals.” The paper ( click here) became an all-time classic and it is one of the most influential methodological papers in social sciences. This fallacy was first introduced by the late William S. An Ecological Fallacy is a logical fallacy that may occur when an observed relationship between aggregated variables differs from the true association at an individual level. Let’s first define what an “Ecological Fallacy” is. This is called the problem of “Ecological Fallacy”. This type of correlation may be statistically significant at the aggregate level but ultimately meaningless at the individual level. There is one dangerous type of spurious correlation, however, that is difficult to spot. Most of us will obviously not pick stocks based on the intensity of solar r adiation or expect to be a Nobel Prize recipient by increasing ones intake of chocolate. But when it comes to spotting spurious correlations, there are much more important issues than the trivial meaningless relationships shown in the schemes above-that we all make fun of. ![]()
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